Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty
This method provides guidance on how to estimate parameters in health economic models and describe the uncertainty around those estimates, helping ensure results are reliable and transparent.
At a glance
Use when
Developing or validating health economic models, especially for submission to HTA agencies
Avoid when
Working outside formal modeling contexts or when no quantitative uncertainty assessment is needed
Inputs
Clinical and epidemiological data, evidence from trials or observational studies, expert opinion
Outputs
Estimated model parameters with associated uncertainty distributions, results of sensitivity analyses
How it works
Developed by the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force, this method outlines best practices for parameter estimation, including the use of point estimates, distributions, and sources of data (e.g., clinical trials, observational studies). It also covers approaches to characterize uncertainty, such as deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, to support robust health technology assessment.
- HTA domains
- Clinical Effectiveness, Costs & Economic Evaluation, Safety
- Assumptions
- Available data are relevant and of sufficient quality; uncertainty can be quantified probabilistically or deterministically
- Strengths
- Standardized, evidence-based approach; promotes transparency and reproducibility in modeling; widely accepted in HTA
- Limitations
- Relies on data availability and quality; may be challenging to apply in data-sparse contexts
Questions this answers
- › How should model parameters be estimated from available data?
- › What sources of evidence are appropriate for parameter estimation?
- › How should uncertainty in parameter estimates be characterized?
- › What methods can be used to propagate uncertainty through a model?
- › How should sensitivity analyses be conducted to test model robustness?
- › What reporting standards should be followed for parameter estimation and uncertainty?
References & sources
Related methods
Similar by meaning
- Guidance for good health economic modelling practices in personalised medicines
- HEcoPerMed Guidance for Harmonisation and Improvement of Economic Evaluations in Personalised Medicine
- HEcoPerMed Modeling Case Studies for Validation of Methodological Guidance
- Need for Speed single-parameter EVPPI algorithm (Sadatsafavi)
- Estimating Health-State Utility for Economic Models in Clinical Studies
Beta record. Based on the original catalogue summary; primary-source enrichment pending.