State-Transition Modeling
A way to simulate how diseases progress and how treatments affect people over time, helping compare different healthcare options.
At a glance
Use when
Modeling chronic diseases with multiple stages; long-term projections are needed; individual patient data is limited
Avoid when
Disease progression is highly continuous and not stage-based; insufficient data on transition probabilities
Inputs
Health state transition probabilities, time horizon, cycle length, treatment effects, costs, utilities
Outputs
Projected clinical outcomes (e.g., survival, quality-adjusted life years), cost-effectiveness measures (e.g., ICER), event probabilities over time
How it works
A simulation method for modeling disease progression and treatment outcomes over time in economic evaluations, typically using Markov models or other discrete-state frameworks to represent transitions between health states.
- HTA domains
- Clinical Effectiveness, Costs & Economic Evaluation, Patient and Social Aspects
- Categories
- Cost-effectiveness ModellingData Exploration & VisualizationModel ValidationPredictive Modelling
- Assumptions
- Disease progression can be represented by discrete health states; transitions depend only on current state (Markov property) or can be extended; transition probabilities are stable over time or follow defined patterns
- Strengths
- Allows long-term extrapolation beyond trial data; accommodates competing risks and recurrent events; flexible structure for modeling complex pathways
- Limitations
- Sensitivity to model structure and assumptions; potential oversimplification of continuous processes; requires careful validation and parameter estimation
Questions this answers
- › How does a disease progress over time?
- › What are the long-term outcomes of different treatments?
- › How do treatment effects change as the disease advances?
- › What are the cost-effectiveness implications of different treatment strategies?
- › How do patient transitions between health states affect outcomes?
- › What is the impact of varying transition probabilities on results?
References & sources
Related methods
Similar by meaning
Beta record. Based on the original catalogue summary; primary-source enrichment pending.