MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool
The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool is a free online tool that helps researchers gather expert opinions about uncertain values in models, especially when data is limited. It allows remote collaboration and supports five different methods to capture how confident experts are in their estimates.
At a glance
Use when
Empirical data is insufficient to inform model parameters and expert judgment is needed to quantify uncertainty, especially in economic models or decision analyses.
Avoid when
Sufficient high-quality data exists to estimate parameter distributions empirically, or when experts are unable or unwilling to engage with probabilistic thinking.
Inputs
Expert judgments about uncertain quantities, typically in the form of quantiles, intervals, or best estimates with uncertainty bounds, entered via web interface using one of five supported elicitation techniques.
Outputs
Elicited univariate probability distributions (e.g., normal, log-normal, beta, gamma) suitable for use as inputs in probabilistic models, along with graphical and numerical summaries of expert responses.
How it works
The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool is a web-based application designed to elicit expert judgments in the form of univariate probability distributions for uncertain model parameters. It supports five elicitation techniques and enables real-time, remote collaboration by allowing multiple users to log in and interact with shared graphical displays during tele- or video-conferenced sessions. The tool facilitates adherence to best practices in expert elicitation, including structured interviews, immediate feedback, and interactive visualization.
- HTA domains
- Clinical Effectiveness, Costs & Economic Evaluation, Patient and Social Aspects
- Assumptions
- Experts can meaningfully express their uncertainty about unknown quantities in probabilistic terms; the elicitation process follows structured protocols to minimize cognitive biases; remote interaction does not compromise the quality of elicitation.
- Strengths
- Supports multiple elicitation methods to suit different expert preferences and contexts,Enables remote, real-time collaboration with shared visual feedback,Promotes adherence to best practices in expert elicitation,Freely accessible and user-friendly web interface,Facilitates immediate review and refinement of expert inputs
- Limitations
- Limited to univariate distributions; does not support joint or multivariate elicitation,Relies on expert availability and ability to interpret probabilistic concepts,Potential for cognitive biases despite structured protocols,Requires internet access and basic digital literacy from participants
- Also known as
- MATCH Tool, MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation
Questions this answers
- › What are expert beliefs about the value of an uncertain parameter in a health technology assessment model?
- › How can probability distributions be elicited from experts when empirical data is sparse?
- › Which techniques can be used to quantify uncertainty in model inputs using expert judgment?
- › How can remote expert elicitation be conducted effectively and collaboratively?
- › How can expert responses be visualized and refined in real time during elicitation sessions?
- › What methods support structured, bias-minimized elicitation of uncertainty in decision models?
References & sources
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