Moment matching with nonlinear regression for EVSI across sample sizes
A fast and accurate method to estimate the economic value of future research studies of different sizes, helping to choose the most cost-effective study design by predicting how much uncertainty can be reduced.
At a glance
Use when
Designing clinical trials where economic value of information is a key criterion, comparing multiple study designs efficiently
Avoid when
Using extremely complex models where even moment matching is computationally prohibitive, or when prior information is highly unstable
Inputs
Health economic model outputs, prior distributions, sample size range, simulation results from the model
Outputs
Estimated EVSI values across specified sample sizes, predicted optimal sample size for maximum net benefit
How it works
This method extends the moment-matching approach for estimating Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) across varying sample sizes. It computes posterior variances of net monetary benefit for different sample sizes and applies Bayesian nonlinear regression to estimate EVSI efficiently, enabling optimization over trial designs with minimal computational overhead compared to single EVSI calculations.
- HTA domains
- Clinical Effectiveness, Costs & Economic Evaluation
- Assumptions
- The relationship between sample size and posterior variance can be approximated; the health economic model is stable across simulations; Bayesian nonlinear regression fits the data well
- Strengths
- Fast computation relative to repeated EVSI estimation, enables comparison of many trial designs, retains accuracy for realistic models
- Limitations
- Requires rerunning the health economic model, which may be costly for complex models; performance depends on model stability and regression fit
- Also known as
- Moment matching for EVSI optimization, Nonlinear regression for EVSI
Questions this answers
- › How can we estimate EVSI quickly across multiple sample sizes?
- › Which trial design maximizes net economic benefit?
- › How does sample size affect the value of reducing uncertainty in health economic models?
- › Can EVSI be used practically in trial design decisions?
- › How accurate is moment matching combined with nonlinear regression for EVSI estimation?
References & sources
Similar by meaning
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